Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
