Just eight weeks ago when the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A reversion to average might be the greatest opponent they will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
